IDC CMO FutureScape: Predictions for 2016 and the Digital Transformation

Think marketing has already experienced the biggest impact from digital transformation? Think again. IDC CMO Advisory Service predicts that CMO jobs will turnover 25% per year; that 20% of marketers will blow up their funnel; and that cognitive marketing as a mainstream practice is not far away.

Here are our most recent predictions.

  1. By 2017, CMOs will spend more on content marketing assets than they do on product marketing assets. For decades, the product launch has reigned as the kingpin content event. With a “bill of materials” stretching through multiple Excel pages, product marketing assets suck up a major portion of the marketing budget – and much of that content is wasted. The days of product content dominance are numbered. Product content will remain important but it will take its place behind the content marketing assets matched to decision-journey stages.
  2. By 2020, 50% of companies will use cognitive computing to automate marketing and sales interactions with customers. A few leads go right to sales. But the majority need further qualification and extended nurturing. Companies will increasingly turn to smart systems that automatically assess and respond to buyers at the point of need.  IBM recently added Watson to its marketing cloud offerings. The question is not when cognitive marketing will become mainstream – but rather, will anyone notice?
  3. By 2017, 20% of large enterprise CMOs will consolidate their marketing technology infrastructure. Marketing has been absorbing marketing technology a bite at a time for more than a decade. Many organizations now manage dozens (if not hundreds) of point solutions. Just as marketing environments are hitting the wall of this operational complexity, marketing tech vendors are building solid integrated platforms – tailorable through a partner eco-system. A fortuitous convergence of supply and demand.
  4. By 2020, 33% of CMOs will outsource some digital marketing activities via marketing-as-a –service. Marketing-as-a-service is a bundle of technology and marketing services that enable world-class digital marketing capabilities to be outsourced. MaaS offers CMOs an attractive, viable alternative to owning (and operating) everything.
  5. By 2018, predictive analytics will be a standard tool for marketers, but only a third will get optimal benefit. Early adopters of predictive analytics for buyer behavior report amazing results. The benefits come from the ability to discover hidden segments that have a high propensity to buy. Marketers can also better serve these segments with behavioral targeting. However, the majority of marketers face big challenges to achieving the benefits.  Chief inhibitors? Lack of statistical skills, stubborn organizational silos that won’t integrate data, and a culture that resists truth when it goes against tradition.
  6. In the tech industry, CMO job turnover will continue at the rate of 25% per year through 2018. In 2015, 59% of tech CMOs in companies larger than $50 Million in revenue had been in their job for less than two years. Some CMOs get pulled out of their job. The best and brightest get invited to join hot growth companies or exciting tech businesses sprouting as divisions in other industries. Other CMOs get pushed out. Some just can’t live up to the requirements of digital transformation. Others are discarded by laggard CEOs who just don’t understand modern sales and marketing.
  7. By 2020, 20% of marketers will abandon the traditional funnel in favor of a customer-centric model. The light of data increasingly reveals the reality of buying behavior. That same light also reveals major flaws in the traditional funnel. The sales funnel is 114 years old and never meant for the digital era. Rabid funnel advocates cling to the past with ridiculously convoluted updates. But making the funnel more complex with extra loops and stages just puts lipstick on the proverbial pig. Forward-leaning companies now experiment with customer-centric models that respond to real buying challenges in innovative ways.
  8. By 2017, 60% of CMOs will lag in implementing recommended benchmarks for marketing technology staff investment, increasing the rift between the CMO and CIO. Marketing is the fastest growth area for new technology investments, with growth projected at an average 9% per year through 2018. Given this situation, you might expect marketing to be ahead of the curve – leading the way towards technology investment and staffing. However, IDC believes that tech marketers are underspending and under hiring. Only 2.6% of marketing program dollars go towards technology and only 1.6% of marketing staff are primarily tech.
  9. In 2016, 70% of companies offering cloud or digital services will increase investment in post-purchase marketing. Marketing is primarily associated with the early stages of the buyer’s journey, the stages IDC calls Exploration and Evaluation. However, as the ownership economy evolves into a service/sharing/experience economy, companies will find that they need to market throughout the entire customer experience. For example, the fastest growing cloud software companies (those with 20%+ annual growth) have a more holistic approach. They spend about 16% of their total marketing budget on post purchase marketing.
  10. By 2018, 50% of CMOs will make significant structural changes to their “intelligence” operations and organizations.  “Intelligence” as a capability is growing in importance in modern marketing organizations. Intelligence includes market intelligence (MI), business intelligence (BI), competitive intelligence (CI), and social intelligence (SI). In the past, these four functions were spread around the enterprise. Now, IDC sees more companies consolidating into a larger, single, intelligence group – often combining with intelligence functions from other areas like sales. The elimination of silos in this important area is a positive sign.

For more information, check out our free webcast of the report highlights or download the full report. [Report download may require subscription].

 

Chief Digital Officers: Bridging the Innovation Gap Between the CIO and CMO

The chief digital officer (CDO) is no longer an exotic, quixotic, flash-in-the-pan role. In some of the world’s leading brands, the CDO is now the general manager of a large digital business unit with significant revenue targets reporting to the CEO. This is one of the fascinating conclusions from IDC’s latest report on the CDO role based on interviews with CDOs from: Caterpillar, CVS Health, The Metropolitan Museum of Art, Meredith Corp., SAP Digital, Travelex, the U.S. Department of Commerce, and Under Armour.
The title of this study should in no way insinuate any lack of innovation on the part of CIOs or CMOs. Both roles are managing digital transformations that are reshaping everything about their organizations. Those efforts can be all consuming, so some brands are establishing the CDO to lead strategic innovation. Free from the operational KPIs of the CMO and infrastructure demands of the CIO, the CDO is expected to invent the digital growth engines of the future.
Information and software-based companies are moving into services and support areas across industries. They are bringing new business models based on data services, sharing economies, and mobility much faster than established companies can. This is a huge threat as these areas are major revenue growth opportunities in industries that may be in low single-digit growth mode. Legacy brands typically don’t have the core competencies in software development or data and analytics needed to bring information-based products to market. In addition, cultures at many large enterprises are not used to the extreme cadence of digital business. As a result, leading companies are not only driving internal innovation and developing their own talent, they are investing and acquiring start-ups.
Based on our interviews, we have developed three archetypes for today’s CDO:
  • The digital GM: Reports to the CEO and leads the establishment and/or transformation of a significant business.
  • The digital Disrupter:Reports to the EVP or equivalent and leads a dynamic team charged with driving product and service innovation and cultural transformation.
  • The digital Evangelist:Reports a level or two down but is highly visible to the executive level. Leads a small team designed to raise digital IQ throughout the organization.

In practice, the CDO role spans a spectrum of overlapping responsibilities. The digital GM also drives innovation and raises the digital IQ of the entire enterprise. The digital disrupter is also in charge of raising digital and social adoption across the company. The digital evangelist is more of a support role that helps senior leaders drive digital transformation.
Two key questions every company should ask itself during the annual executive planning cycle are:
  1. If we wanted to completely disrupt our industry, what kind of company would we start?
  2. How do we become that company?

The executives running the companies profiled in this study have asked themselves these questions in one form or another. They may not have all the answers yet, but they have dedicated themselves to finding out before they get “Appled,” “Ubered,” or “Airbnbed.” New mantras for the digital era are:
  • The only way to control the pace of change is to set it — that’s the primary mission of the CDO
  • Always be disrupting
  • Follow the money: find out where the VC money is going in your industry and watch those companies closely, partner with them, and invest in them or buy them if you can

For more information about this report please contact me: gmurray(at)idc(dot)com.

Organizational Tips for Leading the Marketing Transformation

Do you ever feel overwhelmed by the marketing transformation? You aren’t alone.  An IDC analysis of tech marketing staff changes since 2009 reveals that CMOs have had to squeeze traditional staff functions to accommodate five new roles: analytics/business intelligence, marketing technology, social marketing, sales enablement, and campaign management. In 2013, these new five roles collectively made up 14% of the total marketing staff.

IDC invited organizational change expert, Dr. Rick Mirable, to advise our clients on insights for leading more successful organizational change initiatives. Here are some of the tips that Dr. Mirable, who has more than 20 years of diverse business consulting and academic experience, offered:

  • What we believe about change determines how we will respond to change. People hold beliefs about the capability of both company culture and individual people’s ability to change. Good change initiatives raise awareness of these biases.
  • Successful change initiatives require that leaders be included. It’s not only individuals deep in the organization that need transformation, but leaders must also be role models for the change they want to see.
  • People resist change for many reasons. Change can threaten our sense of security (What will happen to me?) and our sense of competence (Can I learn new skills?). People may worry they will fail. They may not understand why change is needed. Companies may inadvertently reward people who resist change by penalizing people who try new things and fail.
  • Some resistance to change comes from unspoken resentment. Companies must allow for expression of the relevant “inner conversations” that people have with themselves about the change — views that are not explicit to others. Resentment is like dirty laundry — if you don’t get rid of it eventually it starts to smell!
  • Some change initiatives fail simply because the organization isn’t ready. Assess your readiness and then bring those areas found lacking up to speed before embarking.
  • The communication portions of most change efforts are weak and not consistent over the long haul. The communication must be open and bidirectional. Messages and goals need to be regularly repeated and reinforced.
  • Company culture is essential to sustaining success over time. One cultural attribute proven to accelerate change is the empowerment of individuals to make decisions that further the change goals. It is a best practice to ask people what they want to do (and ask for management permission to do it) rather than telling them what to do. This practice encourages innovation and accountability and drives change deeper in the organization.
  • Don’t confuse “movement” with progress. When you get off the freeway during a traffic jam, you may be able to move faster; however, that movement doesn’t guarantee that you are actually moving toward your destination or will get to it any more quickly. IDC notes that marketing teams that measure activity rather than outcomes are making this error.
  • Create circumstances for people to motivate themselves. Motivation can include extrinsic rewards such as money. Proven to be even more effective are intrinsic rewards — challenge, learning, responsibility, contribution, and career path advancement. Intrinsic rewards tap into the power of people’s passions. Companies are advised to structure people’s work so as to allow passion to surface.
  • Reduce resistance by creating a “burning platform.” Clarify the risks and benefits of the change and involve the collective wisdom of the group. Give people a role in the change. Involve a person’s “head” and “heart” as well as the “feet” of required actions.